Commercial Insight: Antihypertensives

New challenges for a maturing market

The growth rate of the antihypertensive market is declining. These changes reflect the challenges faced by pharmaceutical companies over the next decade, as brand erosion and healthcare reforms impact heavily. The slow and declining growth rate does not reflect a stationary market, but the battle between the drugs that make up the market.

Large pharmaceutical companies such as Novartis that have established themselves in the cardiovascular arena are steering away from development in the antihypertensive market. While still continuing to enjoy large revenues from its cardiovascular arm, the research and development of Novartis shows that it is now investing elsewhere, where it sees more future profit.

EXECUTIVE SUMMARY

Objective of the analysis

Datamonitor insight into the hypertension market

The objective of this analysis of the antihypertensives market is to enable the reader to:

• Quantify the future size and scope of the hypertension market and the potential for new products;
• Identify future challenges for the ARB drug class, in particular from looming patent expiries across the seven major markets and from Novartis’ novel pipeline antihypertensive, Rasilez (aliskiren), which is set to take market share away from the ARBs;
• Quantify the impact of key patent expiries, such as Cozaar (losartan) and Norvasc (amlodipine), in both the EU and the US markets;
• Understand the power of marketing in the commercial success of an antihypertensive therapy;
• Learn how recent healthcare reforms across Europe have had diverging effects on the sales of hypertensive medications, and how these reforms are set to have an impact on sales in the future.

Datamonitor insight into the hypertension market

In the course of its research and analysis for Commercial Insight: Antihypertensives, Datamonitor identified the following key conclusions:

• Overall CAGR of the antihypertensive market is declining. In 2005 the antihypertensive market across the seven major markets grew by only 4.4%. However, Datamonitor forecasts suggests that growth between 2006 and 2010 will slow to only 2.4%, and growth between 2006 and 2015 only amount to 1.5%. Although the growth of each of the seven major markets is declining, the US growth will have decreased from a growth rate of 5.8% between 2004 and 2005 to only by 0.05% between 2006 and 2015. These changes reflect the challenges faced by pharmaceutical companies over the next decade, as brand erosion and healthcare reforms impact heavily. The slow and declining growth rate does not reflect a stationary market, but the battle between the drugs that make up the market.
• The first Angiotensin Receptor Blocker (ARB) patent expiry in the US, Cozaar (losartan), has the potential to affect the antihypertensive market and alter the structure dramatically. Threats of generic and therapeutic substitution alongside money-saving healthcare strategies which have plagued other markets, are now approaching the successful ARB class, and will have an impact on the whole antihypertensive market. As the ARBs are such popular therapies, the effects could be damaging. The second case study assesses the impacts of the patent expiry, and considers the rise and fall of the therapies affected.
• Large pharmaceutical companies such as Novartis that have enjoyed previous success in the cardiovascular franchise are actively exploring other avenues of growth and are steering away from further development in the antihypertensive market. Focus is instead moving towards oncology, and to other less developed markets that are exploiting new developments and technologies in biologic therapies to deliver sales growth. While still continuing to enjoy large revenues from its cardiovascular arm, the research and development of Novartis shows that it is now investing elsewhere, where it sees more future profit. The Novartis case study represents the plans of a strategic and forward thinking pharmaceutical company as it ensures that it maintains its successful profile

The basis for these conclusions, along with supporting data, is provided in the accompanying PowerPoint presentation. Forecasts for the seven major markets are provided in the accompanying Excel file and in the appendix to this document.

Summary of key milestones in the antihypertensives market

Figure 1 illustrates the key milestones that are expected to have an impact on the antihypertensives market across the seven major pharmaceutical markets (7MM) during the forecast period, 2007 to 2015: